The May Day holiday has passed. The Ministry of culture and tourism said that 160 million domestic tourists visited China, a year-on-year decrease of 30.2%. The decrease in the number of tourists was due to the domestic epidemic that can not be ignored. The outbreak of the epidemic in many places affected major base oil transactions in Northeast China, central China and East China, such as Shanghai, as well as the location of major base oil and chemical oil producers. The lubricant industry is also unable to escape, Dealers in the automotive aftermarket know that price fluctuations are common, and there is little possibility of rising or falling. Recently, affected by the Russian oil embargo and the rise of international bulk commodity prices, international lubricating oil giants have chosen to increase prices in May. Let's take a look at the price rise trend:
Increase in additive prices
There are many factors leading to the rise in the price of the lubricating oil industry. In early April, the once high international oil price fell back to less than $100 due to the comprehensive impact of the OPEC meeting's decision to increase production, the release of the United States' strategic oil reserves, and the prospect of the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike. However, there is no sign of a decline in the lubricant market. In addition to the rise in the price of raw materials, even additives, which have always been calm, have begun to act.
Lubricant additive production capacity is mainly concentrated in the hands of a few chemical giants. Generally, the price of additives is relatively stable, but this year, due to the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and other factors, additives also began to rise. On April 18, Lubrizol's price increase policy of 12% will officially take effect.
In addition, BASF, an international chemical giant, also said that the financial report data of the first quarter of 2022 showed that the net profit of the company in the first quarter was 1.221 billion euros, which was significantly lower than that of the same period of the previous year (the first quarter of 2021: 1.718 billion euros) and lower than the average expectation of analysts for the first quarter of 2022 (1.767 billion euros). According to the analysis, the decline in net profit was mainly affected by the rising prices of raw materials such as upstream crude oil, natural gas and coal, If the profit downturn continues, BASF will raise the price of lubricating oil additives.
Additives are one of the important indicators that determine the cost of lubricating oil. The global supply is basically monopolized by a few European and American brands such as Lubrizol and BASF. If the price of additives can not remain stable, the price of lubricating oil will still rise before the price of additives falls back.
The dealer is depressed
It is understood that many lubricant dealers are optimistic about the future prospects of the industry, and some dealers say that the current price is no longer important, and nobody cares about the money if they buy it?, The price of lubricating oil belongs to the general rise of the industry. Dealers of different brands have different channel policies, supply and brand influence for their products. The difference in sales status has also caused the polarization of optimists and pessimists of dealers.
At present, crude oil, supply, demand, inventory and other aspects are relatively tight. Previously, sales channels believed that the price rise in 2021 was mainly due to the large-scale shutdown and overhaul of upstream refineries, as well as the rise of foreign freight and the stockpiling of goods by upstream institutions, which comprehensively caused the temporary shortage of lubricating oil supply. However, in the beginning of 2022, raw materials continued to rise, as well as the tension between Russia and Ukraine, The raw materials of oil and other automotive electronics are more tight, and the products cannot be sold at low prices. The high prices will increase the operating costs of dealers and stores. In this case, the symbiotic relationship between manufacturers and dealers is more serious, which makes many dealers have great pressure on inventory and shipment.
The cost of a barrel of lubricating oil is basically composed of 90% base oil, 10% chemical additives, packaging materials, depreciation of production equipment, labor costs, storage and transportation costs, etc. from the continuous rise of raw material prices to the scarcity of high-end products, both supply and demand can promote the price increase of lubricating oil again.
报错 笔记
